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Corbyn is Finished But His Radicalism Changed U.K. Politics -

Corbyn is Finished But His Radicalism Changed U.K. Politics(Bloomberg) -- “You had better make f****** sure I don’t win.” It was June 2015 and Jeremy Corbyn did not want to run for the leadership of the Labour Party.But someone had to carry the flag for a dwindling band of socialist politicians in the contest that followed Ed Miliband’s demoralizing election defeat at the hands of David Cameron’s Conservatives. It was Corbyn’s turn to have a go.He took some comfort in his status as the rank outsider in the leadership race, but it wasn’t long before the radical leftward transformation in Labour’s membership -- swelled by an influx of like-minded socialists -- made itself felt. With a message of tackling social injustice and poverty, Corbyn shocked the party establishment by winning -- and by a landslide.Even then, the 70-year-old vegetarian, teetotal, anti-war protester never fancied leading. He preferred gardening, or making jam, to devising political strategies or hankering after power.At 3:24 a.m. on Friday, Corbyn’s luck deserted him. He had taken Labour to its worst election result for 84 years, in which his party was routed in its key heartlands, losing to the Tories in some cases for the first time in history. As Boris Johnson’s Conservatives headed for victory, Corbyn announced he would step down.“I will not lead the party in any future general election campaign,” Corbyn said, though he added there needed to be “a process of reflection” about Labour’s direction. “I will lead the party during that period to ensure that discussion takes place, and we can move on into the future.”Yet while perhaps a reluctant leader, Corbyn also struggled to see his own role in his failed campaign. On Friday he was blaming Brexit for “taking over” the election narrative, drowning out discussion of key issues like health care. Lucy Powell, a Labour member of parliament and critic of Corbyn, said she wanted to see more “contrition and humility” from the leadership.Corbyn’s brand of politics had always been about campaigning and protest from the sidelines. He came of age politically in the 1980s as a disciple of left wing euro skeptic Tony Benn, who was famous for his speech making. He rebelled countless times against Tony Blair’s centrist “New Labour” government. He vehemently opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq and spent years leading the anti-war campaign in Britain.Corbyn’s image as an outsider played to his advantage. The party campaign in 2015 spawned a personality cult, which some have likened to Bernie Sanders’ grassroots success in the U.S, with an army of supporters and activists in a Corbynite group known as Momentum.He needed their help to survive a leadership challenge in 2016. Labour members of parliament were distraught at the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in a referendum in June of that year and many blamed a half-hearted effort to back “remain” from Corbyn -- who has long been a euro skeptic. But while lawmakers tried to oust him, Momentum’s activism and online campaigning ensured Labour’s left-wing membership refused to let Corbyn go.Corbyn was plunged into a fresh crisis when then-Prime Minister Theresa May triggered a snap election in 2017. His party was poorly prepared and his MPs had no desire to campaign for him to become prime minister. He was ridiculed as weak and unpopular, and few gave him much chance of success against a Tory party 25 points ahead in the polls.Then apparent disaster struck. Labour’s entire manifesto -- with its radical plans to nationalize railways and abolish university tuition fees -- was leaked to newspapers. It was ripped apart by commentators in the press.And yet it somehow caught fire with the public. The cult of Corbyn gained millions of new followers. As he toured the country, thousands packed football stadiums and chanted his name, “Oh Jeremy Corbyn,” at every rally. When he showed up at the Glastonbury music festival, he was treated like a rock star.Even then, few believed Corbyn’s appeal translated beyond a left-wing niche. When the election results came in, Corbyn -- who was cooking eggs in his apartment with close aides and his wife -- was as surprised as anyone to find he had taken Labour to within striking distance of power.His platform, combined with an incompetent campaign from May, robbed the Conservatives of their small majority, and gave Labour 40% of the popular vote.Magic fadesTwo years later, Corbyn and his team tried to repeat the magic. But he was no longer the unknown breath of fresh air and the crowds were not quite the same. Crucially, in Boris Johnson, Corbyn faced a far more ruthless and effective campaigner.Labour’s answer was to propose an even more dramatic set of socialist policies than 2017. Free broadband for all. Higher taxes for businesses and the rich. Wild pledges to spend billions on schools and hospitals. Renationalizing mail, railways, and key utilities.It didn’t work. While voters liked many of the ideas, the evidence suggests they did not believe Labour could deliver.Two other factors weighed on Corbyn’s campaign. The first was Brexit. Labour’s supporters were split on the issue and Corbyn could not decide whether to back leaving the EU or staying in. Instead, he pledged to put a deal he would negotiate with the EU to the country in yet another referendum, in which he would remain “neutral.” For Britons weary of voting, and tired of political paralysis, Johnson’s repeated promise to “get Brexit done” won the day.The second problem for Corbyn was Corbyn himself. Labour candidates, including many who were loyal, said Corbyn was now simply too unpopular among voters who recoiled at the prospect of putting him in Number 10. Persistent allegations that he failed to stamp out anti-Semitism in the party and was weak on national security issues also damaged his chances.Corbyn Can’t Find Antidote to Anti-Semitic ‘Poison’ in Labour“Corbyn was a disaster on the doorstep. Everyone knew that he couldn’t lead the working class out of a paper bag,” former cabinet minister Alan Johnson told ITV.The question for Labour now is not whether Corbyn can survive, or even precisely when he stands down, although many want him to go immediately. It is what happens to Corbyn’s wider socialist movement, and whether the party can recover from such a rout.Yet these existential issues do not tell the whole story. Corbyn failed, and Corbynism may still prove too strong a medicine for British voters in future. But his 2017 campaign achieved one thing above all: it permanently changed the debate on post-financial crisis austerity in the U.K.Corbyn’s unexpected success two years ago forced Johnson to act to neutralize the argument from the left, by effectively matching it. Johnson’s manifesto promised to protect the National Health Service, hire 50,000 extra nurses, spend almost 12 billion pounds ($16 billion) in extra borrowing and cancel a tax cut for businesses.The biggest tribute to Corbyn is not what happens to a devastated Labour Party now, it’s the fact that Johnson’s Tories have stolen his clothes.To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, Alan CrawfordFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.


Fri, 13 Dec 2019 11:16:02 -0500

EU warns of post-Brexit rival Britain after Johnson win -

EU warns of post-Brexit rival Britain after Johnson winEuropean leaders warned Friday that Britain could become a formidable rival, just hours after a big victory by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's conservatives all but sealed the UK's Brexit divorce. Led by France and Germany, EU member states said they would pursue a swift trade deal with a tight deadline of end 2020, but insisted that any new arrangement must uphold European values and norms. "There is no question of concluding a deal at any price," EU Council President Charles Michel told a news conference after the talks.


Fri, 13 Dec 2019 11:08:02 -0500

Merkel faces backbench rebellion over Huawei -

Merkel faces backbench rebellion over HuaweiHuawei could be excluded from Germany’s 5G network following a backbench rebellion against Angela Merkel. In a blow to the German chancellor’s authority, backbenchers from her own party and her main coalition partners have united to block the controversial Chinese telecommunications company from the project. Mrs Merkel has so far defied US pressure to exclude Huawei from the project. The Trump administration accuses the Chinese government of using the company’s technology to spy on the US and its allies. But Mrs Merkel says Germany’s intelligence services can secure the network and has insisted companies be considered on their technical expertise alone. She was already facing opposition from her Christian Democrat party (CDU), which voted at its party conference to exclude any company that might be a security risk. Now CDU backbenchers have gone further, uniting with colleagues from the centre-Left Social Democrats (SPD) to draft a parliamentary motion calling on the government to exclude all companies from countries that pose a risk. Angela Merkel insists German intelligence can protect its 5G network Credit: JULIEN WARNAND/EPA-EFE/REX “The question of trust in the integrity of the manufacturer and the legal system of the country of manufacture is central,” a text of the motion leaked to Handelsblatt newspaper reads. The motion calls on Mrs Merkel’s government to "safeguard European security interests by a statutory approval requirement, which takes into consideration the political and legal conditions in the country of origin”. It specifies that companies based in countries where they might be subject to state interference should be excluded. MPs plan to introduce the motion next month. The move is a rare instance of backbench cooperation between the two coalition partners, and will be difficult for Mrs Merkel to ignore. She is said to be keen to avoid damaging trade relations with China by excluding Huawei. But she has come under intense pressure from Mr Trump over the issue and the backbench move may provide her with cover for a change of course.


Fri, 13 Dec 2019 10:53:48 -0500

Brexit-Backing Billionaire Gains $300 Million After Johnson Win -

Brexit-Backing Billionaire Gains $300 Million After Johnson Win(Bloomberg) -- Champagne was flowing in London’s Mayfair as the news hit.Boris Johnson’s Conservatives weren’t just winning, they were trouncing Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour across the U.K., including working-class Northern towns far removed from the West End.Michael Spencer, founder of interdealer broker Icap and longtime Tory donor, threw a celebration at Scott’s, the upscale seafood restaurant in London, according to a person familiar with the matter. About 200 guests toasted Johnson’s triumph.The result was a “crushing national repudiation of the dangerous and divisive neo-Marxist policies” embraced by Labour’s leadership, Spencer said in a statement.Corbyn made attacks on the ultra-wealthy a key part of his campaign, as well as pushing for nationalization of utilities, higher taxes and another referendum on a deal to leave the European Union.Other rich Brits celebrated his defeat in quieter ways and started looking ahead to the next stage of Brexit, which the size of Johnson’s victory almost certainly ensures.Peter Hargreaves, one of the biggest supporters of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, said he was relieved by the Conservative Party’s victory. He blamed Labour’s disappointing showing on Corbyn’s lack of appeal even in the northern heartlands.“I was in contact with lots of friends in the North and they were quite surprised how many Labour voters weren’t going to vote for Corbyn. They were petrified of Corbyn.”The Lancashire-born billionaire had another reason to celebrate. He owns about a third of online investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown Plc, whose shares rose 4.1% as of 12:40 p.m. in London, boosting the value of his stake to $4.1 billion and his overall fortune to $4.6 billion.His wealthy peers also had a bumper day. In total, the 16 Brits on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index -- including Jim Ratcliffe and James Dyson -- added around $2.8 billion to their combined net worth on Friday.Relief was a common theme.“I don’t need to celebrate -- I’m just very, very happy with the result,” said John Caudwell, who founded Phones 4U, the mobile-phone retailer. “If Labour had got a majority or there was a hung parliament, which wasn’t impossible, I would have been devastated. Far from celebrating, I would probably have been in a corner somewhere sobbing.”That sentiment echoed across the City of London after months of fearing a Corbyn victory would do even more damage to the British economy than a hard Brexit with no transition deal.“Business in general will really appreciate the clarity,” said Jeremy Isaacs, financier and founding partner of private equity firm JRJ Group. “Markets should react positively that the Corbyn risk is gone and we should see foreign direct investment flowing into the country.”While Hargreaves had said he would stay in the U.K. no matter the result, many wealthy families based in Britain had made plans to relocate to more tax-friendly regimes such as Monaco or Switzerland if Corbyn came to power. Now those plans are instantly gone, says John Elder, a founding partner of Family Office Advisors LLP, a firm based in London that provides strategic advice to wealthy families. Instead, he expects family offices will look for bargains in myriad asset classes in the U.K., from property to stakes in companies.“There is political stability and clarity,” Elder said. “The U.K. is now an undervalued country to invest in for at least the next five years.”Read more: U.K. Plc Cheers Johnson Election Win, But Brexit Still LoomsThe London property market in particular could see a boost, according to Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank.“It will release a lot of pent up demand in the market,” he said. “One group that may want to move on with things quite quickly are overseas buyers. With the pound rising they’ll experience an erosion of their buying power, which may well encourage transactions,” although he cautioned that Brexit would still hover above the market.It isn’t just foreign capital that might flow back into the British property market. Mark Stephen, the founder and managing director of Reditum Capital, a London-based real estate investment firm, said a major domestic pension fund is poised to place 50 million pounds to 100 million pounds ($134 million) to work in his fund now that Johnson and the Tories have won control of Parliament.Reditum plans to invest the fund in land earmarked for new housing developments north of London and in Newcastle. “They premised the investment on the result going the way it did, so hopefully we can wrap that up in the next year,” Stephen said.Boris and BrexitOthers money managers were more circumspect.Ever since the Brexit referendum was passed in June 2016, Seven Investment Management LLP, an investment firm in London with 13 billion pounds in assets, had been weaning its portfolios of U.K. stocks and looking abroad to fill the gap. Now its portfolio managers will take a serious look at ramping up British equities, said Ben Kumar, an investment strategist with the firm.But he’s telling clients he remains cautious because after Brexit no one knows whether Johnson will succeed in negotiating new free trade agreements with Brussels by December, and another with Washington.“The problem with Boris is that he doesn’t care what he’s promised before, deadlines just go flying by, so will he get it done by December?” Kumar said. “The point is, uncertainty hasn’t gone away.”Hargreaves is also focusing on how the next stage of Brexit negotiations proceed now that Johnson has the biggest Tory majority since 1987, when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister.“It’s like a game of poker,” he said. “You have a hand that you’ve got to play well.”Still, the prevailing expectation was that the new government’s mandate would restore some zip to an economy that’s largely been in a holding pattern since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016.Mobile-phone billionaire Caudwell said now is the moment to make some big bets on the economy as a whole.“There has definitely been a reluctance on my part to press buttons to further investments,” he said. “Now I can go full steam ahead.”\--With assistance from Viren Vaghela, Ambereen Choudhury, Nishant Kumar and Thomas Buckley.To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Metcalf in London at tmetcalf7@bloomberg.net;Edward Robinson in London at edrobinson@bloomberg.net;Ben Stupples in London at bstupples@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Pierre Paulden at ppaulden@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.


Fri, 13 Dec 2019 10:40:33 -0500

Victorious Johnson Pledges Prosperity, Growth, Hope: U.K. Votes -

Victorious Johnson Pledges Prosperity, Growth, Hope: U.K. Votes(Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.Boris Johnson’s emphatic election victory puts the U.K. on course to leave the European Union next month, after pro-Brexit voters in Labour heartland areas swung behind his party, delivering its biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher’s in 1987.The prime minister urged people to heal the divisions over Europe and pledged to repay the trust put in him with an era of “prosperity and growth and hope.”Key Developments:With all seats declared, the Conservatives have 365 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, a gain of 48, to Labour’s 203 seats, down 59Jeremy Corbyn says he will step down after Labour’s worst result since World War IIU.K. Plc Cheers Johnson Election Win, But Brexit Still LoomsPound Surges and Gilts Drop as Tory Landslide Jolts U.K. AssetsJohnson Wins Crushing Majority in Election That Upends BritainThe pound rose by the most in almost three years as the scale of the Tory victory became clearJohnson Pledges to Unite Divided U.K. (3:15 p.m.)Speaking outside his Downing Street office, Johnson thanked voters who have never voted Tory before and promised to “work around the clock” to repay the trust they have put in him. To voters who didn’t back him and want to remain in the EU, he promised to “never ignore your good and positive feelings of warmth and sympathy towards the other nations of Europe.”Urging people “to find closure and to let the healing begin,” Johnson said his staff will now step up their work to “make 2020 a year of prosperity and growth and hope.”Anti-Brexit Group Abandons Fight (2:50 p.m.)The main lobby group pushing for a second referendum on Brexit has abandoned the fight.Swinson: No Regrets on Campaign Strategy (2:30 p.m.)Former Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson -- who stepped down after she lost her seat to the SNP -- said she does not regret her party’s campaign built around canceling Brexit, despite a poor performance.“I’m proud that Liberal Democrats have been the unapologetic voice of Remain in this election,” she said. “Obviously it hasn’t worked, and I, like you, am devastated about that. But I don’t regret trying, trying everything, because the prize was to save our future, save our children’s future.”Swinson said she was proud to be the first female leader of the party but “even more more proud that I will not be the last.” Seven of the 11 Liberal Democrat MPs are women, including Layla Moran, who dramatically increased her majority. As recently as the 2015 general election, their elected MPs were all male.Macron Warns U.K. Over Straying From EU Model (2 p.m.)French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters on Friday that the further the U.K. strays from the European Union model after Brexit, the further the country will be from the bloc’s single market.“The more ambitious the deal they want, the higher the regulatory alignment should be,” Macron said. “Every time they depart from EU regulations, they will stray away from an ambitious accord.”EU to Prioritize Most Important Issues (1:25 p.m.)The European Union will prioritize topics to be covered in trade negotiations with the U.K. to make sure the most important issues are taken care of by the time Britain leaves the bloc, Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels.“We’ll put specific focus on those issues that are an economic cliff edge at the end of 2020 if they would not be done,” Von der Leyen said. “These are issues where we have neither an international framework to fall back on nor the possibility to take unilateral contingency measures covering the period after the first of January 2021.”Merkel: Disorderly Brexit Now Off Table (1:15 p.m.)German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Boris Johnson’s decisive victory will help negotiations on the future EU-U.K. relationship and may help “reunite” Britain.“We now have some security that the agreement we worked on will be valid,” Merkel told reporters on Friday after a summit in Brussels. “That means a disorderly Brexit is really no longer a reality.”Corbyn Blames Brexit for Defeat (1 p.m.)Jeremy Corbyn blamed Brexit for “taking over” the general election campaign and said he will talk to the Labour Party’s national executive about the process to replace him as leader, which he expects to begin early next year.“I have pride in our manifesto we put forward, and all the policies we put forward which actually have huge public support,” Corbyn said in a pooled TV interview. “My whole strategy was to reach out beyond the Brexit divide to try and bring people together.”Corbyn said he suffered unprecedented personal abuse from the media during the campaign, and called for a period of “good discussion within the party” to consider the way forward.Many Labour MPs have said Corbyn, who has described himself as a “Marmite” or divisive figure, was the reason for the party’s catastrophic performance. Lucy Powell, Labour’s MP for Manchester Central and a Corbyn critic, said she wanted to see more “contrition and humility” from the leadership.Chancellor: Business Welcomes Conservative Win (12.49 a.m.)Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid said there will be a “deal dividend” as a result of the election outcome and Johnson passing his Brexit withdrawal agreement.“Because of the election result, there are investors who have decided to deploy money in the United Kingdom,” Javid said on Sky News. “Business after business wants an end to the uncertainty.” Pressed on whether there was still a threat of no-deal at the end of 2020, Javid said: “No one needs to worry about no-deal, because we now have a solid majority.”Sturgeon: Independence a Matter for Scotland (12:15 p.m.)Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland’s semi-autonomous government will publish the “democratic case for a transfer of power” from Westminster “to enable a referendum to be put beyond legal challenge.”Under current law, Westminster must vote to allow Scotland a further independence referendum, a move Johnson has ruled out. Sturgeon argued the SNP election result gives her the mandate to put that decision to Scotland without Westminster approval, saying she’ll set out her “detailed” case next week.“I have been clear that a referendum must be the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament,” she told supporters. “This is not about asking Boris Johnson or any other Westminster politician for permission. It is an assertion of the democratic right of the people of Scotland to determine their own future.”Johnson Returns to Downing Street (11.42 a.m.)Almost an hour after he arrived at Buckingham Palace, Johnson returned to Downing Street, walking briskly up to the front door. Why was he with the Queen for so long? She may have had a lot of questions for him, but equally he could have been held up by the Changing of the Guard at the palace, which prevented him from leaving.Cameron Offers his Praise (11.31 a.m.)Former Prime Minister David Cameron, a long-time rival of Johnson who resigned after losing the Brexit referendum in 2016, offered “big congratulations” on the victory.“It’s an extraordinary result, a powerful result. It marks the end of Corbyn and Corbynism and that’s a very good thing for the country,” Cameron said in a pooled TV clip. “It gives us a very strong and decisive government, and the opportunity to build the dynamic economy and good public services we need.”What Happens to Brexit Now? (11.12 a.m.)MPs return to Parliament on Dec. 17, followed by a Queen’s Speech laying out the government’s program two days later. Johnson will then look to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill before Christmas, with the aim of passing it in good time before the Brexit deadline of Jan. 31.The 11-month transition period will start from the end of January, during which time Johnson will get down to thrashing out a trade deal with the EU. He’ll first need Parliament to sign off his negotiating objectives, and the EU will also need to get approval for its mandate.If Johnson sticks to his campaign promise to not extend the transition period, the U.K. and the EU will have a tight time line to hammer out an accord. If the talks fail, the U.K. will leave the EU without a trade agreement at the end of 2020.Johnson Sees the Queen (10.51 a.m.)The prime minister is leaving Number 10 Downing Street in a gray Jaguar to go to Buckingham Palace, where Queen Elizabeth II will ask him to form a government. Recall that he made a similar visit just five months ago when he replaced Theresa May as Conservative Party leader. This time he’s heading back with his own mandate to run the country, finally able to move from campaign mode to governing.Corbyn May Stay for a While (10.18 a.m)Corbyn may remain as leader until April because Labour Party rules dictate a minimum 12-week leadership election. The timetable must be set by the National Executive Committee which isn’t meeting until January.Electoral Questions (10:02 a.m.)The Conservatives and the Brexit Party combined got 47% of votes, less than the 52% of support for parties in favor of a second referendum, polling guru John Curtice told the BBC.The result is likely to prompt more debate about the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system, as victory didn’t come for those with the most popular idea but rather those with the better organized campaign, said Curtice, who ran the team of psephologists that delivered the exit poll last night.Future Europe Ties (9:57 a.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the decisive result means the EU and U.K. can move forward on completing the Brexit withdrawal agreement.Varadkar told reporters in Brussels before a meeting with fellow EU leaders that the next steps will be to develop a future economic partnership with the U.K., “one that’s going to be mighty and one that’s going to be good for all of us.”Earlier:Johnson’s Victory Gives Him a Free Hand to Get Brexit DoneBrexit Rewrites U.K.’s Political Map: Balance of Power SpecialCorbyn to Stand Down as U.K. Labour Party Faces Record Defeat\--With assistance from Richard Bravo and Tim Ross.To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net;Joe Mayes in London at jmayes9@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Thomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.


Fri, 13 Dec 2019 10:25:49 -0500


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